Topic: Situation in Somalia
Somalia is a country on the Easternmost coast of Africa. It is located at Africa’s horn and as such, it has tremendous value as a sea port. It was colonized by British and Italian forces in the late 19th century. While Somalia officially gained independence in 1960, American, European and Soviet influences have played a large role in the following decades of political instability and war. The current Somali government was only formed in 2012.
There has been a struggle for centralized power in the country since the early 90s. The current phase of the conflict is between the Federal Government of Somalia, recognized by the United Nations; and the Al-Shabaab, a military organization that many countries including the US and United Kingdom list as a terrorist organization. Al-Shabaab grew in response to the 2006 invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia. Despite the aid of multiple multi-national security efforts, Al-Shabaab retains enough control in Somalia to effectively run its own government, collecting between $100 and $150 million in taxes in 2023 alone.
Multiple international groups are stationed in the state, including the United Nations Support Office in Somalia, UNSOS, and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, ATMIS, now the Support and Stabilization Mission, AUSSOM, as well as the United States, which has historically held a military presence there since the early 90s. While these groups are ostensibly working to fight against Al-Shabaab, incidents leading to civilian casualties have bred distrust amongst the general populace.
Internally, Somalia’s population is divided amongst five distinct clans that are further divided into many tribes. These tribes each have their own cultures and laws which they practice in villages and towns across Somalia. The Somalian government has armed a number of these tribes to combat Al-Shabaab.
Somalia has tense relations with its neighbor to the East, Ethiopia. The two nations have had territorial disputes for centuries, and the current situation is no exception. In 2024, Ethiopia made a deal with Somaliland, an unrecognized territory that exists within northern Somalia. The deal granted Ethiopia a naval port on the country’s northern coast. This raised fears of an Ethiopian invasion, which led the Somalian government to call for a total withdrawal of Ethiopian troops.
Negotiations between Ethiopia and Somalia have improved, however, there is no final resolution for the tensions between these nations as of yet. The continued participation of Ethiopia in AUSSOM remains ambiguous. The United Nations Security Council recently reiterated the importance of the Somalian government and security forces in combatting Al-Shabaab within Somali borders. As of present only a fraction of the Somali security forces have been assessed as combat effective, leaving concerns as to how well the Somali government will be able to retain its control as ATMIS draws down and transitions to AUSSOM.
The security situation in Somalia remains tenuous. There are plans to build-up and aid the Somalian government, however, those plans are complicated by tensions with Ethiopia and internal divisions between Somali tribes. Tribal militias that were armed by the Somali government have turned on the towns and villages they have liberated, turning against the government in Mogadishu. The situation is critical and in this time of transition is vulnerable to failure.
